Before Jan 1, 2027
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored price
No 91.5%
No 91.5%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$4.9K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 21, 26, 6:30 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsAI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027
Manifold MarketsGlobal AI Diffusion Rate ≥ [X]% by End of Q4 2026
Manifold MarketsWill any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWho will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
PolymarketWho will Trump publicly praise by October 31?
PolymarketRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Donald TrumpThe White HouseTruth Social verified @realDonaldTrumpThe Associated PressReutersCBS News
- Pause, pacing, and slowdown include a temporary halt or a deliberate reduction in the rate of frontier AI research, training, or capability development; a complete halt is not required. Frontier AI means leading general-purpose AI systems and development of their successors. The call must concern development generally on a worldwide basis or through coordinated action across countries. Calls restricted to one sector or application, such as biology, or to one country do NOT qualify. An explicit endorsement of a qualifying proposal counts, including a proposal conditional on reciprocal participation or safeguards. Merely describing, considering, or quoting a proposal without endorsing its slowdown component does NOT count. Deployment restrictions, safety measures, or regulation alone do NOT count without an explicit development slowdown call. Implementation is not required. Statements must be affirmatively issued or signed; being quoted in another’s statement does not count. Retweets, reposts, or shares without additional commentary do not count as statements.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.