AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027
AIOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83.8%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Apr 4, 25, 3:54 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2027, the AI safety community successfully advocates for and achieves a significant global slowdown in frontier AI development.
- A "significant global slowdown" requires at least two of the following:
- A formal international agreement signed by at least 3 of the top 5 AI-producing countries to limit or pause certain types of AI development
- Major AI labs (at least 3 of the top 5) publicly committing to and implementing significant voluntary slowdowns
- Implementation of substantial regulatory barriers to rapid AI development in at least 3 of the top 5 major AI-producing countries
- The slowdown must be explicitly connected to AI safety concerns and must represent a material change from the previous development pace.