Will "The Spectre haunting the "AI Safety" Community" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will "The Spectre haunting the "AI Safety" Community" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets prices No at 85.1% as of October 25, 2026.

When does Will "The Spectre haunting the "AI Safety" Community" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?

Will "The Spectre haunting the "AI Safety" Community" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.

How is Will "The Spectre haunting the "AI Safety" Community" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+1.0pt20%
• 2028+1.0pt16%
• 2027+2.0pt9%

Total Vol

$433.1K

24h Vol

$71.8K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T28.9%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.8pt18.3%
• $2.0–$2.25T-3.5pt18.3%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,-1.0pt78%
• December 15,74%
• November 30,+8.0pt65%

+9 more outcomes

Total Vol

KALSHI

What will Bernie say during his rally in Duluth?

• Billionaire (5+ times)+24.0pt99.5%
• Trump (5+ times)+23.0pt99.5%
• Trillionaire+58.0pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+3.3pt90.9%
• Anthropic-2.5pt8.1%
• OpenAI-0.1pt1%

+18 more outcomes

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt92.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202791.5%
• Before Feb 1, 2027-3.0pt88.5%

• Best AI at the end of 2026?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• OpenRouter AI token usage in October
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Top coding AI this month (Arena.ai)
• Best AI this week
• GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on?