Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67.7%
Forecasters
42
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleNov 5, 23, 2:47 AM UTCJan 2, 35, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027?
Manifold Markets"Conditional AI pause" commitment triggers antitrust enforcement by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsGlobal AI Diffusion Rate ≥ [X]% by End of Q4 2026
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if a global AI pause is enacted at any time before 2035, and we survive to 2035.
- Resolves NO if we survive without enacting an AI pause
- For the purpose of this question: A global AI pause is a pause agreed on or forced upon countries that cumutatively make up over 95% of AI research between 2024 and the year the pause comes into effect.
- A pause must force all AI training within the affected countries to be strongly restricted or banned, according to specific and extensive rules and restrictions.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted? resolve?
- Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2035.
- How is Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if a global AI pause is enacted at any time before 2035, and we survive to 2035.