Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.2%
Forecasters
64
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 5, 23, 2:47 AM UTCJan 2, 35, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if a global AI pause is enacted at any time before 2035, and we survive to 2035.
- Resolves NO if we survive without enacting an AI pause
- For the purpose of this question: A global AI pause is a pause agreed on or forced upon countries that cumutatively make up over 95% of AI research between 2024 and the year the pause comes into effect.
- A pause must force all AI training within the affected countries to be strongly restricted or banned, according to specific and extensive rules and restrictions.
- Update 2026-09-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A 6-month pause qualifies as a global AI pause for the purpose of this market's resolution.