Will a more significant protest calling for a pause in AI than the pause letter by May 2029 (or an actual pause)?
One-OffAIRegulation2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 86%
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Updated 40 minutes ago
May 23, 24, 1:04 PM UTCMay 25, 29, 3:59 AM UTC
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Tyler Cowen linked to this clarification of his claims: https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1793209848953233872
- It included this: Will we ever see another significant protest calling for a 6 month pause on AI development of frontier models? Highly doubt it.
- Resolves YES if there is such a protest, or there is indeed such a pause.
- If it is a protest, it must call for either an indefinite or 6+ month pause.
- If it is an actual pause, it must last 6 months or be in place on the resolution date, and must include the most advanced AI labs (either 3+ most advanced, or all those within striking distance of the leader).
- Resolves NO if there is no such event.
