"Conditional AI pause" commitment triggers antitrust enforcement by EOY 2028?
AIOne-OffCrime & Justice2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 15, 2026, 12:20 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastOpenAI 10%-40.0%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 days ago
StaleJul 14, 26, 12:17 AMDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
OpenAI10%
Volume trend
$2.0kJul 142d of dataJul 15
Related Markets
New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?
$132.9Yes: 44%
KALSHI
KALSHI
OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?
$6Yes: 29%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETEpstein files prop bets (ADD YOURS)
$3Trump admin vetoes the Nov 18 release: 0%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon?
$0Yes: 55%KALSHI
KALSHI
Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?
$0Yes: 4%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Stability AI convicted of infringing property rights by the end of 2026?
$0Yes: 75%FUTUUR
FUTUURActive in these topics
Related News
Coinbase Opens Payment Rails for AI Agents as Corporate Clients Accept Autonomous TransactionsBlockchain Reporter
Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt
WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter
California duo accused of laundering crypto from fentanyl and meth salesCrypto News
LayerZero Executor Wallets Undergo Security Breach, $2.4 Million DrainedBlockchain Reporter
California pair charged with laundering crypto proceeds from darknet fentanyl salesThe BlockRules
Resolves YES: IF {AI Company} makes a public commitment to a conditional pause of AI capabilities AND {AI Company} suffers antitrust repercussions as a consequence.
- Resolves N/A: IF no such commitment is made by {AI Company}.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Definitions:
- public: on the company website or official corporate social media accounts (eg CEO's twitter account doesn't qualify)
- conditional: commitment activates only when other companies also pause