"Conditional AI pause" commitment triggers antitrust enforcement by EOY 2028?
AIOne-OffCrime & Justice2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOpenAI 10%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 14, 26, 12:17 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES: IF {AI Company} makes a public commitment to a conditional pause of AI capabilities AND {AI Company} suffers antitrust repercussions as a consequence.
- Resolves N/A: IF no such commitment is made by {AI Company}.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Definitions:
- public: on the company website or official corporate social media accounts (eg CEO's twitter account doesn't qualify)
- conditional: commitment activates only when other companies also pause
