Will the ICC issue an arrest warrant against a sitting world leader before 2030?
InflationOne-OffGeopoliticsPoliticsUS PoliticsMiddle EastRussia / UkraineCrime & Justice3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57.5%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 24, 26, 6:20 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
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FutuurRules
Resolves YES if, during the window, the International Criminal Court issues an arrest warrant against any person who is an active world leader (as defined below) at the time the warrant is issued, and who was not already the subject of a publicly known ICC arrest warrant as of this market's open.
- Otherwise resolves NO.
- Who counts ("active world leader").
- The person must, at the moment the warrant is issued, currently hold the office of head of state or head of government of a UN-member sovereign state — president, prime minister, reigning monarch serving as head of state, or the de jure or de facto top national leader in office at that time.
- Excluded: former leaders no longer in office at issuance; ministers and other cabinet/government officials; military officers, commissioners, or other officials; sub-national leaders; and leaders of non-state actors or non-UN-member entities.
- Already-warranted leaders excluded.
