Will the ICC issue an arrest warrant against a sitting world leader before 2030?
One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsCrime & Justice3yManifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastYes 88.5%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 days ago
StaleJun 24, 26, 6:20 PMDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes89%
Related Markets
Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
$72.1Yes: 75.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by...?
$0December 31,: 11%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
$3.6KYes: 25%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
$589.5Joe Biden: 7%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will Ekrem Imamoglu leave jail by the end of 2026?
$200.2Yes: 25%FUTUUR
FUTUUR
Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody?
$138.4Yes: 10%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Chinese Exile Miles Guo Sentenced to 30 Years for $1B Crypto Fraud SchemeThe Defiant
Goliath Ventures CEO pleads guilty in $400 million crypto Ponzi caseCoindesk
Iran war shifts tourism, Polymarket trims China-Taiwan invasion odds to 4.25%Blockchain.News
Iran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%Blockchain.News
South Korea moves to prosecute crypto whale for alleged pump-and-dump schemeThe Block
Goliath Ventures CEO Pleads Guilty to $250M Crypto Ponzi SchemeDecryptRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.