What are the current odds for Will the US strike Mexico by ??

Futuur prices December 31 at 11% as of October 25, 2026.

When does Will the US strike Mexico by ? resolve?

Will the US strike Mexico by ? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

Where else is Will the US strike Mexico by ? listed?

The same question is also listed on Polymarket.

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Will the US strike Mexico by ?

PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics Geopolitics Latin America2mo

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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 7:29 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current implied probability

December 31 11%

Market quality

23 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

—

Liquidity

$352.5

Low liquidity

Traders

Comments

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

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Rules

This event concerns whether the United States conducts a military strike against legitimate targets inside the territory, airspace, or territorial waters of Mexico between this event’s creation date and the deadline specified in the title (the “Event Period”).

A qualifying “US strike on Mexico” means kinetic military action by U.S. armed forces (e.g., air, missile, naval or ground strikes) that hits targets in Mexican territory, airspace, or territorial waters, authorized and conducted by the U.S. government as a military action.
For the purposes of this market, the following clearly do not qualify as “US strikes”:
Border incidents involving law enforcement or security forces without U.S. military authorization; Cooperative joint operations with Mexican forces; Counter-drug interdictions by U.S. agencies without formal military command involvement; Accidental or collateral exchanges of fire at or near the border where no official U.S. military operation is declared; Any action not officially described by the U.S. government as a military strike.
The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is an official public statement or document confirming such a strike from either (i) the U.S. Department of Defense, (ii) the White House (including the President or official spokespersons), or (iii) the U.S. Department of War equivalent authority.
If a qualifying U.S. military strike on Mexico is confirmed by the PDS during the Event Period, this market will resolve to “Yes”.