Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastCuba 21.6%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleFeb 28, 26, 3:13 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 3:01 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, this market asks: which sovereign nation will the United States next conduct a kinetic military attack against?
- This market resolves when the US conducts a kinetic military operation against a new country not currently under active US attack.
- Iran is excluded as prior a event.
- The operation must take place before 2029-12-31.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the first country against which the US conducts a qualifying military attack after February 28, 2026.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which country will the US strike next??
- Manifold Markets prices Cuba at 21.6% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does Which country will the US strike next? resolve?
- Which country will the US strike next? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Which country will the US strike next? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, this market asks: which sovereign nation will the United States next conduct a kinetic military attack against?