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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. US Politics
  3. US strike on Mexico by...?
US strike on Mexico by...?

US strike on Mexico by...?

1.5% (24h)One-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsLatin America6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
December 31
December 31 11%+1.5%
Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality

64 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$3.3K

Liquidity

$30.4K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

10.0% / 12.0%

Spread

20.0%

Wide spread
7d Change

+1.5%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Jan 4, 26, 7:58 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
January 31
January 31
0%
March 31
March 31
0%

Selected outcome

December 3111%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
  • A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
  • Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
  • Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,939.37+2.48%EthereumETH$1,661.11+1.87%SolanaSOL$65.33+1.74%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.54%XRPXRP$1.12+0.48%BNBBNB$596.99+1.87%

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
  • A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
  • Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
  • Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.