PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 14%+1.5ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$461.3
Liquidity
$18.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
13.0% / 14.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jan 4, 26, 7:56 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3114%
Compare venues· December 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 14% | 0pt | $461.3 | $18.2K | 10 minutes ago | |
 Futuur93% match · auto | Low | 12% | -2pt | $0 | $352.4 | 30 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Futuur
Will the US strike Mexico by ?
5mo
12%
1%
23 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$116.5
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
- A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
- Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
- Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$461Jul 226d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
- A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
- Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
- Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.