PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 10%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$13.8K
Liquidity
$19K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
168
7d Change
+2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 35 minutes ago
Jan 4, 26, 7:56 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Lost
Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US Military drone strike in Mexico before EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Military drone strike in Mexico before EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US strike Cuba by ?
FutuurWhich country will the US strike next?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
PolymarketUS military action against Cuba by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
- A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
- Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
- Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — Will the US strike Mexico by ...? · December 31 11%
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-1.0pt3%
- September 30-0.2pt0%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.2M
- 24h Vol
- $896.2K
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Nithya Raman+15.0pt59%
- Karen Bass-15.0pt41%
- Total Vol
- $34M
- 24h Vol
- $775.1K
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase+15.0pt63.7%
- No change-15.0pt34.3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+2.0pt63.6%
- D-House, R-Senate-4.0pt26.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.9pt9.1%
+1 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-5.8pt62%
- October 31-11.5pt34%
- September 30-7.0pt8%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.3pt91%
- Republican Party-0.3pt9%
- Total Vol
- $35.2M
- 24h Vol
- $546.5K
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Florida Governor winner?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Texas Senate winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US strike on Mexico by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 10% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does US strike on Mexico by which date? resolve?
- US strike on Mexico by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is US strike on Mexico by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET.
- Where else is US strike on Mexico by which date? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Futuur.