Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.2%
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40
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMay 12, 25, 7:14 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This question asks if there will be a drone strike carried out by the US Military on Mexican soil before the end of 2026.
- Must be publicly reported on before the close date to count.
- Update 2026-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Joint US/Mexican operations: Whether a joint operation counts depends on the level of US involvement, particularly the nationality of the drone operator/launcher (whoever "pushed the button").
- US arms sales/loans to Mexico or US intel provided to Mexico for independent Mexican strikes would not count.
- Mexican-flagged vessels: Strikes on Mexico-flagged vessels do not count as strikes on "Mexican soil" - the term "soil" refers to land only.