Will the US drone strike a suspected cartel operation in Mexico before 2029?
US PoliticsOne-OffLatin AmericaGeopolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 59.9%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 5, 25, 3:32 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 6:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
The Trump administration has indicated that it could attack Mexican cartels, including the use of drone strikes.
- Will this happen?
- This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2029:
- The United States military or intelligence agencies (CIA, etc.) conduct at least one drone strike targeting suspected cartel members, facilities, or operations on Mexican soil
- The strike must be officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or verified by multiple credible news sources
- The target must be specifically related to cartel activities (drug trafficking, organized crime)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US drone strike a suspected cartel operation in Mexico before 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US drone strike a suspected cartel operation in Mexico before 2029? resolve?
- Will the US drone strike a suspected cartel operation in Mexico before 2029? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Will the US drone strike a suspected cartel operation in Mexico before 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The Trump administration has indicated that it could attack Mexican cartels, including the use of drone strikes.