Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 84.5%
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10
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 2 hours ago
StaleFeb 6, 24, 7:51 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Minor constituent as in frozen conflict zone/exclave.
- Resolves YES if Ukraine declares war (or special military action, etc) on, annexes, or invades Transnistria, Abkhazia, or Kaliningrad.
- (They are already so with the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimean Republics regardless of your own view and will not count towards market resolution.) Still resolves yes even if they immediately cede the land to someone else, eg Transnistria to Moldova, or Kaliningrad to Poland.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frozen_conflict#/media/File:Geopolitics_South_Russia2.png