Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 97.5%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleAug 7, 23, 7:28 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030
Manifold MarketsWhich Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
Also resolves as yes if Russian Federation ceases to exist.