Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
One-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 8:04 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJan 18, 23, 12:13 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 12:59 PM UTC
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For clarity, if a part of Russia secedes as an independent state this would resolve positively.
- If Crimea went back to Ukraine that would not be enough.
- If Crimea became an independent country, that would.