Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.7%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 18, 23, 5:09 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Bashkortostan secede from the Russian Federation before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia target Kyiv on?
PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRules
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republics_of_Russia