Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 86.7%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 18, 23, 5:09 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?
Manifold MarketsWill Alberta vote to secede from Canada?
KalshiWill conclusive evidence emerge before 2030 that Viktor Orbán is a Russian asset?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketHow many seats will the Communist Party (KPRF) win in the next Russian legislative election?
PolymarketRules
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republics_of_Russia
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030 resolve?
- Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republics_of_Russia