Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50%
Forecasters
49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Dec 19, 25, 4:47 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:02 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Ukraine cedes control of any territory to Russia through a peace agreement , or other official arrangement..
- Resolves NO if Ukraine maintains its position of not ceding territory as part of any peace effort.
- ❗️Ukraine does not have to formally recognise the land as russian, just so long as they give it up for now as part of a peace deal ❗
- Ongoing peace negotiations between Ukraine, the U.S., and European officials have made progress on security guarantees but left significant gaps on territorial control.
- Putin has demanded that Ukraine surrender territory for the war to end, while Zelenskyy to date has refused to cede any land.
