Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 68.4% as of October 28, 2026.

When does Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030? resolve?

Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.

How is Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves Yes if Russia officially states that any territory it regrads as part of the country at the start of 2024 is not part of Russia anymore before January 1, 2030 (perhaps, although not necessarily, as part of a peace deal with Ukraine).

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POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 28+1.6pt100%
• October 31+1.8pt96%
• November 294%

+19 more outcomes

Total Vol

$28.9M

24h Vol

$860.4K

POLYMARKET

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

• March 31+2.0pt62%
• December 31+5.3pt40%
• November 30+5.0pt28%

+22 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 27+0.1pt100%
• October 2999%
• November 298%

+39 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

• No+2.0pt95%
• Yes-2.0pt5%

Total Vol

$28.2M

24h Vol

$141.4K

POLYMARKET

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

• No81.2%
• Yes18.8%

Total Vol

$75.7M

24h Vol

$122.5K

POLYMARKET

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?

• December 31+6.5pt38%
• November 30+5.0pt25%
• November 2+1.1pt6%

+7 more outcomes

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• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
• Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
• US-Iran nuclear deal?
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
• Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
• Will Ukraine target Moscow on?