Will Russia cede territory to China by 2040 as predicted by Sarah Paine?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineChina13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 2:03 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 56.4%
Yes 56.4%Forecasters
8
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleFeb 7, 25, 7:25 AM UTCDec 31, 39, 12:59 PM UTC
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In this interview at 1:50:50 Sarah Paine predicts that China will choose an opportune time to demand territory in Siberia from Russia.
- She says that a war is unlikely, rather the Chinese will give the Russians an offer they can't refuse.
- In particular she notes Lake Baikal will be very useful for China's water shortages.
- https://youtu.be/LbkO84MsmyM
- This market resolves if any such concessions are made by 2040.
