Will Trump pardon more people during his second term than any president during a single term in history?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64.6%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleNov 28, 24, 5:04 AM UTCJan 22, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
During his first term (2017-2021), Donald Trump granted 237 acts of clemency, which was among the lowest in recent history.
- For comparison, Barack Obama granted 1,927 acts of clemency over eight years, with a substantial portion occurring in a single term.
- Franklin D. Roosevelt holds the record for most pardons in a four-year period, having granted over 2,800 pardons during his first term (1933-1937).
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election AND grants more pardons and commutations combined during his second term (2025-2029) than any other U.S. president has granted during any single four-year term.
- The market will resolve NO if:
