Current community forecast
Any Trump family member 80.3%Leader of 16 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleDec 3, 25, 5:09 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump pardon or commute SBF's sentence?
Manifold MarketsWho will Trump pardon?
KalshiWill Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell during his term?
FutuurWill Trump pardon Nicolás Maduro or commute his sentence in 2026?
PredictItRules
Anyone who receives a presidential pardon or commutation after 12/3/2025 but before Donald Trump leaves power
- Update 2025-12-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market covers pardons issued after 12/3/2025 (starting 12/4/2025).
- The Cuellar pardon on 12/3/2025 does not count for this market, as it occurred before the market's coverage period began.
- Update 2026-01-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Puerto Rico officials do not count as state-level officials for the purposes of this market, as Puerto Rico is not a state.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for [Add Answers] What people or groups will Trump pardon or commute the sentences of? (After 12/3/25)?
- Manifold Markets prices Any Trump family member at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does [Add Answers] What people or groups will Trump pardon or commute the sentences of? (After 12/3/25) resolve?
- [Add Answers] What people or groups will Trump pardon or commute the sentences of? (After 12/3/25) is scheduled to resolve on January 21, 2029.
- How is [Add Answers] What people or groups will Trump pardon or commute the sentences of? (After 12/3/25) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Anyone who receives a presidential pardon or commutation after 12/3/2025 but before Donald Trump leaves power