Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 88%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 25, 24, 11:40 AM UTCJan 21, 28, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Derek Chauvin's sentence reduced due to evidence jury wasn't aware of by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Derek Chauvin be released from prison by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump pardon Derek Chauvin for the death of George Floyd by the end of 2026?
Manifold Markets[Add Answers] What people or groups will Trump pardon or commute the sentences of? (After 12/3/25)
Manifold MarketsWill Trump pardon Nicolás Maduro or commute his sentence in 2026?
PredictItWho will Trump pardon in 2026?
KalshiRules
Note that chauvin was convicted on both state and federal crimes, so this is possible but wouldn't actually get him out of prison.
- Derek Chauvin is currently serving concurrent sentences for both state and federal convictions related to the murder of George Floyd.
- While presidents have the constitutional power to pardon federal crimes, they cannot pardon state-level convictions.
- Chauvin is serving 22.5 years for the state murder conviction and 21 years for federal civil rights violations.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump issues a presidential pardon (or otherwise commutes the sentence) for Derek Chauvin's federal conviction for violating George Floyd's civil rights at any point during a future presidency.
