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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 66.7%
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31
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 21, 25, 1:45 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump pardon more people during his second term than any president during a single term in history?
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FutuurRules
Democracy observers worry that pardoning J6 insurrectionists incentivizes future political violence, because it signals that Donald Trump might shield them from legal consequences.
- Political violence against opponents of the President is a commonly used tactic for authoritarian capture.
- Will Trump do this?
- What counts: pardoning assassination attempt, attacking opposing protestors, etc., attacks on Republicans by far-right individuals will also count
- The violence must occur during the second term.
