Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 66.7%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJan 21, 25, 1:45 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Democracy observers worry that pardoning J6 insurrectionists incentivizes future political violence, because it signals that Donald Trump might shield them from legal consequences.
- Political violence against opponents of the President is a commonly used tactic for authoritarian capture.
- Will Trump do this?
- What counts: pardoning assassination attempt, attacking opposing protestors, etc., attacks on Republicans by far-right individuals will also count
- The violence must occur during the second term.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Wil Trump pardon political violence that occurs during his second term??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Wil Trump pardon political violence that occurs during his second term? resolve?
- Wil Trump pardon political violence that occurs during his second term? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Wil Trump pardon political violence that occurs during his second term? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Democracy observers worry that pardoning J6 insurrectionists incentivizes future political violence, because it signals that Donald Trump might shield them from legal consequences.