Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms?
PoliticsOne-OffEntertainmentUS PoliticsElectionLatin America9d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.2%
Forecasters
154
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 19, 26, 3:17 PM UTCNov 2, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump declare a national emergency by year-end?
PredictItWill the Trump admin allow the Colorado River to reach an inoperable level to declare a State of Emergency b4 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump declare a national emergency related to elections before the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump declare a national emergency related to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump declare a national emergency related to AI?
Manifold MarketsTrump declares election interference national emergency by which date?
PolymarketRules
Shadow strategist Bannon seems to believe so.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump, in his capacity as President of the United States, officially declares a new national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) on or before November 3, 2026 (11:59 PM EST).
- Source of Truth: The declaration must be officially published as a Presidential Proclamation or Executive Order on the Federal Register (federalregister.gov) or the official White House website (whitehouse.gov).
- Exclusions: This market requires a newly declared national emergency.
- The continuation, extension, or modification of existing national emergencies (such as the January 2025 emergency regarding energy and critical minerals) will not qualify.
