Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms?
PoliticsOne-OffEntertainmentUS PoliticsElectionLatin America1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.4%
Forecasters
144
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleAug 19, 26, 3:17 PM UTCNov 2, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Shadow strategist Bannon seems to believe so.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump, in his capacity as President of the United States, officially declares a new national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) on or before November 3, 2026 (11:59 PM EST).
- Source of Truth: The declaration must be officially published as a Presidential Proclamation or Executive Order on the Federal Register (federalregister.gov) or the official White House website (whitehouse.gov).
- Exclusions: This market requires a newly declared national emergency.
- The continuation, extension, or modification of existing national emergencies (such as the January 2025 emergency regarding energy and critical minerals) will not qualify.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms? resolve?
- Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms? is scheduled to resolve on November 2, 2026.
- How is Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Shadow strategist Bannon seems to believe so.