KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 42.9%Leader of 4 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$558.4
Liquidity
$1.1K
Low liquiditySpread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Aug 28, 26, 4:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Rules
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary.
- Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included.
- Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify.
- The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump declare a national emergency??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2027 at 43% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does Will Trump declare a national emergency? resolve?
- Will Trump declare a national emergency? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Trump declare a national emergency? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Will Trump declare a national emergency? listed?
- The same question is also listed on PredictIt.