Will the Trump admin allow the Colorado River to reach an inoperable level to declare a State of Emergency b4 midterms?
PoliticsQuarterlyUS PoliticsWeather1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleAug 29, 26, 8:36 PM UTCNov 2, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
The water cuts a
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on or before November 3, 2026 (the date of the U.S. midterm elections), both of the following conditions are met:
- Inoperable Reservoirs: The water level of either Lake Powell drops below 3,490 feet (the minimum power pool elevation for Glen Canyon Dam) or Lake Mead drops below 950 feet (the minimum power pool elevation for Hoover Dam), as recorded by the official U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR).
- Federal Emergency Declaration: President Donald Trump (or the Trump administration) formally issues a federal declaration of emergency (under the Stafford Act, National Emergencies Act, or another applicable federal statute) specifically citing the critical water levels, drought, or dam/power inoperability along the Colorado River basin.
- If both of these conditions are not officially met on or before November 3, 2026, the market will resolve to NO.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Trump admin allow the Colorado River to reach an inoperable level to declare a State of Emergency b4 midterms??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Trump admin allow the Colorado River to reach an inoperable level to declare a State of Emergency b4 midterms? resolve?
- Will the Trump admin allow the Colorado River to reach an inoperable level to declare a State of Emergency b4 midterms? is scheduled to resolve on November 2, 2026.
- How is Will the Trump admin allow the Colorado River to reach an inoperable level to declare a State of Emergency b4 midterms? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The water cuts a