Trump admin member or their immediate family member indicted for insider trading before 2027?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 81.3%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 9 hours ago

Stale

Jul 11, 25, 6:50 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2027, any individual who served in the Trump administration or their immediate family (spouse, children, or their spouses) is formally indicted on charges of insider trading.
The indictment must be publicly reported by a credible news organization or official government source.
If no such indictment occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".
This market only applies to administration members with formal roles and their families.
Insider trading involves buying or selling a security in breach of a fiduciary duty or other relationship of trust and confidence, while in possession of material, nonpublic information about the security.

Open markets