Will Trump announce a new tariff/immigration policy by end of September 2026?”
Trade PolicyOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection21dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 47 minutes ago
LaggingJul 10, 26, 5:48 AM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, between July 10, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET), President Donald J. Trump or the White House officially announces a new policy, executive action, presidential memorandum, proclamation, or legislative proposal concerning U.S. tariffs or immigration.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Definition of "New": The announcement must introduce a policy, tariff rate, target category, border enforcement directive, or visa rule that is distinct from policies officially active or announced prior to July 10, 2026.
- Expanding, replacing, or substantively modifying an existing program counts as a new policy; merely executing or re-stating an established schedule from a prior order does not.
- Definition of "Announce": The policy must be officially communicated directly by President Trump (e.g., via his official Truth Social account, a live public address, or an official press conference) or formally issued via the White House Briefing Room or the Federal Register.
Open markets
Trade Policy
POLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 31+8.0pt55.2%
- October 31+7.0pt32%
- September 30+2.0pt12.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $130.7K
- 24h Vol
- $9.4K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 3128%
- October 31+1.0pt14%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Yes+27.0pt94%
- No6%
- Total Vol
- $6.6K
- 24h Vol
- $4.7K
KALSHIWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention?
- Trump (3+ times)91%
- Republican80%
- Inflation59%
+15 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3K
- 24h Vol
- $1.3K
KALSHIHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- $0 / No Acquisition83.2%
- $10 billion to $99 billion5%
- $300 billion to $599 billion4%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETTrump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
- October 31+1.0pt56%
- September 30-14.0pt9%
- September 15-0.8pt1%
+1 more outcomes
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- Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump announce a new tariff/immigration policy by end of September 2026?”?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Trump announce a new tariff/immigration policy by end of September 2026?” resolve?
- Will Trump announce a new tariff/immigration policy by end of September 2026?” is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will Trump announce a new tariff/immigration policy by end of September 2026?” settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria