KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Afford / Affordable / Affordability (99%)
Resolved: Sep 11, 2026, 1:56 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
At 7 days out
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At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 11, 2026, 1:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
MAGA / Make America Great Again39%
Republican48%
Election / Midterm91%
Trump (3+ times)78%
Biden60%
Event does not qualify1%
Afford / Affordable / AffordabilityWon
Trump (3+ times)Lost
Fake NewsLost
MAGA / Make America Great AgainLost
Illegal AlienLost
BorderLost
BidenLost
DemocratLost
RepublicanLost
Iran / IranianLost
ObamaLost
Stock MarketLost
TariffLost
Election / MidtermLost
InflationLost
2028 / CampaignLost
Event does not qualifyLost
China / ChineseLost
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ForecastExRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the RNC Midterm Convention using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the RNC Midterm Convention will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Karoline Leavitt speaking in an official capacity.