Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Sep 2026?
RegulationOne-OffTrade PolicyPoliticsUS PoliticsElection22d
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 89%
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$100
Low liquidityBid / Ask
84.0% / 94.0%
Spread
10.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 1, 26, 2:00 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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If the President announces a new trade deal before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:New York TimesBloombergthe White Housethe Office of the United States Trade RepresentativeReutersAssociated Pressthe President of the United States
- For the purposes of this Contract, an announcement must satisfy ALL of the following criteria:
- Made through official channels including White House press conferences, official White House statements, presidential speeches, official presidential social media accounts, or official presidential appearances Explicitly describes the arrangement as a "trade deal," "trade agreement," "trade memorandum," "trade pact," or uses substantially similar language indicating a formal trade arrangement Involves at least one foreign country, territory, or international trade bloc
- Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
- It also includes modifications or re-negotiated versions of previous agreements.
- New arrangements include, but are not limited to:
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Sep 2026??
- Kalshi prices Yes at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Sep 2026? resolve?
- Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Sep 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Sep 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the President announces a new trade deal before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.