KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Before Oct 1, 2026 (86%)
Resolved: Sep 24, 2026, 7:34 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 24, 2026, 6:57 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Before Oct 1, 202686%
Before Nov 1, 202649%
Before Dec 1, 2026Lost
Before Jan 1, 2027Lost
Before Nov 1, 2026Lost
Before Oct 1, 2026Won
Before Sep 1, 2026Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By 2027, will there be a US-China bilateral AI agreement, negotiated partly by an AI mediator?
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PolymarketMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressThe VergeBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- An extension, modification, or replacement of the tariff truce in effect at Issuance qualifies as a new mutual tariff agreement.
- A qualifying agreement must address tariff rates or tariff suspensions; agreements limited to other trade matters do not count.
- Unilateral tariff actions do not count, even if the other side declines to respond.
- Reports that negotiations are ongoing, near completion, or agreed in principle by only one side do not count.
- An agreement qualifies once reached and confirmed by both governments, regardless of when it takes effect.