KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Nov 1, 2026 71%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$200
Liquidity
$2.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
10.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Aug 11, 26, 12:48 AMOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressThe VergeBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- An extension, modification, or replacement of the tariff truce in effect at Issuance qualifies as a new mutual tariff agreement.
- A qualifying agreement must address tariff rates or tariff suspensions; agreements limited to other trade matters do not count.
- Unilateral tariff actions do not count, even if the other side declines to respond.
- Reports that negotiations are ongoing, near completion, or agreed in principle by only one side do not count.
- An agreement qualifies once reached and confirmed by both governments, regardless of when it takes effect.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement??
- Kalshi prices Before Nov 1, 2026 at 71% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement? resolve?
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
