Will the U.S. formally eliminate the tariff on Irish whiskey by October 31, 2026?
Trade PolicyOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionEurope7d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleSep 13, 26, 10:19 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?
PolymarketTrump announces Canada tariff decrease by which date?
PolymarketTrump announces Canada tariff increase by which date?
PolymarketWill Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
KalshiWhich sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
KalshiCanadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. EVs at the end of 2026
KalshiRules
On September 13, 2026, at the trophy ceremony for the Amgen Irish Open at his Doonbeg course in County Clare, President Trump said he plans to remove the 10% U.S. tariff currently applied to Irish whiskey.
- Irish whiskey is subject to the 10% duty on most EU imports, which was cut from 15% to 10% in July 2026.
- This market is not about whether he said it.
- It is about whether the statement becomes a published legal instrument before the end of October.
- RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 ET on October 31, 2026, a U.S. government action eliminating the additional/reciprocal tariff on Irish whiskey has been published or made effective, evidenced by at least one of:
- a notice in the Federal Register (federalregister.gov) modifying the HTSUS so that Irish whiskey (HTS 2208.30) imported from the EU enters at a 0% additional/reciprocal duty rate;