Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleAug 13, 25, 1:25 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump cut corporate taxes this year?
KalshiWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
PolymarketWill Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria obvious, if he does it YES (and we definitely will hear about it), if midterms come and no rebate specifically sourced according to him from the tariffs resolves NO.
- I will not trade in any of my markets going forward.
Open markets
Trade PolicyPOLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 31+8.0pt55.2%
- October 31+7.0pt32%
- September 30+2.0pt12.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $130.7K
- 24h Vol
- $9.4K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 3128%
- October 31+1.0pt14%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Yes+27.0pt94%
- No6%
- Total Vol
- $6.6K
- 24h Vol
- $4.7K
KALSHIWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention?
- Trump (3+ times)91%
- Republican80%
- Inflation59%
+15 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3K
- 24h Vol
- $1.3K
KALSHIHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- $0 / No Acquisition83.2%
- $10 billion to $99 billion5%
- $300 billion to $599 billion4%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETTrump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
- October 31+1.0pt56%
- September 30-14.0pt9%
- September 15-0.8pt1%
+1 more outcomes
- Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
- Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Trump cut a check as tariff rebate before midterms??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Trump cut a check as tariff rebate before midterms? resolve?
- Trump cut a check as tariff rebate before midterms? is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026.
- How is Trump cut a check as tariff rebate before midterms? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria obvious, if he does it YES (and we definitely will hear about it), if midterms come and no rebate specifically sourced according to him from the tariffs resolves NO.