PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 89%+0.3pt
Market quality
75 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$429
Liquidity
$50.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
89.2% / 89.3%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-1.6 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
May 29, 26, 1:14 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
- The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
- Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.