PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 89%+0.0%
Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$773.6
Liquidity
$33.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
87.9% / 89.1%
Spread
1.4%
Tight spread7d Change
+4.0%
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
May 29, 26, 1:14 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes89%
Volume trend
$774Jul 324d of dataJul 26
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
US x China tariff agreement by July 31?
$123.2Yes: 2%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?
$5.1December 31,: 64%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?
$0Yes: 19%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B in 2026?
$0Yes: 79%KALSHI
KALSHI
Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
$31.7Yes: 63%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
What will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
$110% or above: 79%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Russia’s parliament passes crypto market law with $3,800 annual cap for retail investorsCoindesk
Russia is legalizing crypto for everyone except RussiansCrypto NewsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
- The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
- Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.