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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Trade Policy
  3. US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

0.5% (24h)One-OffTrade PolicyChina6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 75%
Market quality

68 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$285.2

Liquidity

$13.5K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

73.0% / 76.0%

Spread

4.1%

Moderate spread
7d Change

+3.5%

Market data

Updated 9 minutes ago

May 29, 26, 1:22 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes75%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
  • Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
  • The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
  • Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,635.39+1.82%EthereumETH$1,652.17+1.34%SolanaSOL$65.06+0.76%

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
  • Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
  • The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
  • Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.