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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Trade Policy
  3. Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B in 2026?
Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B in 2026?

Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B in 2026?

Trade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsChina7mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 0%
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$0

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

79.0% / 86.0%

Spread

8.9%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Jun 3, 26, 11:30 PMFeb 4, 27, 1:29 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Yes
Yes
0%
No
No
100%

Selected outcome

Yes0%

Rules

If the the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S.
  • Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table.
  • For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China
  • The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion.
  • The market resolves to No if that amount is greater than or equal to $150 billion.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

If the the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S.
  • Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table.
  • For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China
  • The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion.
  • The market resolves to No if that amount is greater than or equal to $150 billion.