KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 79%
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$4.5
Low liquidityBid / Ask
79.0% / 85.0%
Spread
7.6%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jun 3, 26, 11:30 PMFeb 4, 27, 1:29 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes79%
Related Markets
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
$776.6Yes: 89%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETUS x China tariff agreement by July 31?
$123.2Yes: 2%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?
$0December 31,: 50%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?
$0Yes: 19%KALSHI
KALSHI
What will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
$110% or above: 79%KALSHI
KALSHI
Will the United States impose additional tariffs on China by December 31, 2026?
$0Yes: 33%FORECASTEX
FORECASTEXActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Russia’s parliament passes crypto market law with $3,800 annual cap for retail investorsCoindesk
Russia is legalizing crypto for everyone except RussiansCrypto NewsRules
If the the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S.
- Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table.
- For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China
- The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion.
- The market resolves to No if that amount is greater than or equal to $150 billion.