KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 74%
Yes 74%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$463.6
Low open interestBid / Ask
69.0% / 79.0%
Spread
10.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jun 3, 26, 11:30 PM UTCFeb 4, 27, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many government employees will Trump cut?
KalshiHow much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump cut corporate taxes this year?
KalshiWill Trump cut >100,000 federal employees in 2026
Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:the U.S. Census Bureau
- The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S. Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table. For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion. The market resolves to No if that amount is greater than or equal to $150 billion. Data are nominal and not seasonally adjusted. Revisions published after the first annual 2026 value is released will not be considered.
Rules for each outcome
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.