PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No
Resolved: Aug 1, 2026, 6:38 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
No
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 1, 2026, 6:20 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
No 100%+0.0pt
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$155.6
Liquidity
$10.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
7d Change
-2.3 pts
Market data
Updated 31 days ago
StaleJun 26, 26, 9:12 PMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
- The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
- Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
