KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 39%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$21.9
Liquidity
$10K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jul 22, 26, 12:00 AM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
PolymarketWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
KalshiWill the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
KalshiWill the United States impose additional tariffs on EU by December 31, 2026?
ForecastExWill the United States impose additional tariffs on South Korea by December 31, 2026?
ForecastExWill the United States impose additional tariffs on China by December 31, 2026?
ForecastExRules
If any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Library of Congress
- The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
- For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.
- Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills.
Open markets
Trade PolicyPOLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 31+8.0pt55.2%
- October 31+7.0pt32%
- September 30+2.0pt12.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $130.7K
- 24h Vol
- $9.4K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 3128%
- October 31+1.0pt14%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Yes+27.0pt94%
- No6%
- Total Vol
- $6.6K
- 24h Vol
- $4.7K
KALSHIWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention?
- Trump (3+ times)91%
- Republican80%
- Inflation59%
+15 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3K
- 24h Vol
- $1.3K
KALSHIHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- $0 / No Acquisition83.2%
- $10 billion to $99 billion5%
- $300 billion to $599 billion4%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETTrump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
- October 31+1.0pt56%
- September 30-14.0pt9%
- September 15-0.8pt1%
+1 more outcomes
- Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
- Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will new tariffs become law??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2027 at 39% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will new tariffs become law? resolve?
- Will new tariffs become law? is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026.
- How is Will new tariffs become law? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.