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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Trade Policy
  3. Will new tariffs become law?
Will new tariffs become law?

Will new tariffs become law?

One-OffTrade PolicyPoliticsElection20d
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Before Jul 1, 2026
Before Jul 1, 2026 3%
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$26

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

1.0% / 3.0%

Spread

200.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Feb 20, 26, 10:00 PMJul 1, 26, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Before Jul 1, 20263%

Rules

If any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.
  • Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No.
  • Joint resolutions are treated as bills.
  • Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage.

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Rules

If any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.
  • Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No.
  • Joint resolutions are treated as bills.
  • Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage.