KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 175 91%+2.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$78.9
Liquidity
$247.1
Low liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 4, 26, 4:30 PM UTCSep 15, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 7?
PolymarketTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13)
KalshiBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
PolymarketBab el-Mandeb Strait closed by which date?
FutuurWill the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is the named outcome from Sep 7, 2026 to Sep 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:IMF PortWatch
- The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Sep 7, 2026 to Sep 13, 2026.
- The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Open markets
Trade PolicyPOLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 3156%
- October 31+3.0pt31.2%
- September 30+3.0pt12.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $121.2K
- 24h Vol
- $5.6K
KALSHISouth Carolina ports total container volume in 2026
- Above 2.2 million TEUs94%
- Above 2.3 million TEUs84%
- Above 2.4 million TEUs56%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $15.7K
- 24h Vol
- $5.1K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt28%
- October 31+1.0pt13%
- September 30+0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- No+1.0pt75.3%
- Yes-1.0pt24.8%
- Total Vol
- $20.6K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
POLYMARKETTrump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
- October 3154%
- September 3023%
- September 15-1.9pt3%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.5K
KALSHITraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (8/31 - 9/6)
- Above 17594%
- Above 200-1.0pt55%
- Above 225+9.0pt18%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
- Will Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Traffic through the Suez Canal? (8/31 - 9/6)
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- What will Nike say during their next earnings call?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
- Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
- How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- Will Trump formalize a 100% tariff on generic drugs before the midterms?
- Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)?
- Kalshi prices Above 175 at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13) resolve?
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13) is scheduled to resolve on September 15, 2026.
- How is Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is the named outcome from Sep 7, 2026 to Sep 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.