Will Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
2.0 pts (24h)Trade PolicyOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection22d
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 75%-2.0pt
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$631
Liquidity
$1.2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
70.0% / 79.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 1, 26, 2:00 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada's new retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods be in force by September 8, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada retaliate and impose tariffs against the US by Sept 15
Manifold MarketsTrump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
PolymarketUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
PolymarketWill the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
KalshiRules
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary.
- Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included.
- Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify.
- The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.
Open markets
Trade PolicyPOLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 3156%
- October 31+3.0pt31.2%
- September 30+3.0pt12.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $121.2K
- 24h Vol
- $5.6K
KALSHISouth Carolina ports total container volume in 2026
- Above 2.2 million TEUs94%
- Above 2.3 million TEUs84%
- Above 2.4 million TEUs56%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $15.7K
- 24h Vol
- $5.1K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt28%
- October 31+1.0pt13%
- September 30+0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- No+1.0pt75.3%
- Yes-1.0pt24.8%
- Total Vol
- $20.6K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
POLYMARKETTrump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
- October 3154%
- September 3023%
- September 15-1.9pt3%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.5K
KALSHITraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (8/31 - 9/6)
- Above 17594%
- Above 200-1.0pt55%
- Above 225+9.0pt18%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
- Traffic through the Suez Canal? (8/31 - 9/6)
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- What will Nike say during their next earnings call?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
- Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
- How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- Will Trump formalize a 100% tariff on generic drugs before the midterms?
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026??
- Kalshi prices Yes at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026? resolve?
- Will Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Will Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Donald Trump has taken any executive action imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.