How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
16.5 pts (24h)Middle EastOne-OffGeopoliticsTrade Policy7d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
170-189 33%+7.5ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$23.3K
Liquidity
$15.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Aug 28, 26, 10:08 PMSep 6, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published.
- If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
- In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections.