PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 16%+0.0%
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$601K
Liquidity
$370.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
15.0% / 16.0%
Spread
6.7%
Moderate spread7d Change
+6.0%
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jul 2, 26, 9:49 PMAug 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes16%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 85% | — | $601K | $370.8K | 18 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets85% match · auto | — | 94% | — | — | — | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?
1mo
93.8%
6.2%
Community forecast21 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.7k86.0%POLYMARKETNoV1nch0u9h ago
POLYMARKETNoV1nch0u9h ago$2.1k85.0%POLYMARKETNoMwhale13h ago
POLYMARKETNoMwhale13h ago$2.5k84.7%POLYMARKETNoasawq14h ago
POLYMARKETNoasawq14h ago$1.3k89.0%POLYMARKETNoStarMaster2d ago
POLYMARKETNoStarMaster2d ago$1.8k88.0%POLYMARKETNosimtrades3d ago
POLYMARKETNosimtrades3d ago$1.5k85.0%POLYMARKETNoWalkStreetIn3d ago
POLYMARKETNoWalkStreetIn3d ago$1.7k86.0%POLYMARKETNoback-in-whack5d ago
POLYMARKETNoback-in-whack5d ago$12.0k89.0%POLYMARKETNoskibabiba12d ago
POLYMARKETNoskibabiba12d agoVolume trend
$601.0kJul 324d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.