US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?
Trade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastChina
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: No
Resolved: Oct 1, 2026, 6:03 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
No
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
91%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 2, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes2%
No98%
NoWon
YesLost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against China between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with China.
- Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by China or Chinese citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
- Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with China will qualify.
- The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against China will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.