US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?
0.5 pts (24h)Trade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastChina1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 84.2%+0.5pt
Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$830.1
Liquidity
$833.8
Low liquidityBid / Ask
15.0% / 16.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Aug 25, 26, 11:27 PMOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against China between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with China.
- Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by China or Chinese citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
- Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with China will qualify.
- The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against China will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
