Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 70.2%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 19, 26, 8:53 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Will a major new armed conflict break out in the Horn of Africa — involving any combination of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, or Somalia — before January 1, 2028?”
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if there is a sustained armed conflict between the national armed forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea at any point between the market's creation and 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- "Sustained armed conflict" is defined as an ongoing engagement involving significant, coordinated military operations between the state forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea, lasting for at least seven consecutive days or involving more than 100 combat-related fatalities.
- Resolution will be based on credible, consensus reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and official statements from international monitoring bodies (e.g., the United Nations or African Union).