Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70.5%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 19, 26, 8:53 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?
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Will a major new armed conflict break out in the Horn of Africa — involving any combination of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, or Somalia — before January 1, 2028?”
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if there is a sustained armed conflict between the national armed forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea at any point between the market's creation and 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- "Sustained armed conflict" is defined as an ongoing engagement involving significant, coordinated military operations between the state forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea, lasting for at least seven consecutive days or involving more than 100 combat-related fatalities.
- Resolution will be based on credible, consensus reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and official statements from international monitoring bodies (e.g., the United Nations or African Union).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026? resolve?
- Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will a major new armed conflict break out in the Horn of Africa — involving any combination of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, or Somalia — before January 1, 2028?”