What are the current odds for US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029?

Manifold Markets prices No at 95.1% as of November 1, 2026.

US and Canada engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 95.1%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Jan 4, 25, 7:09 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 12:00 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market resolves YES if there is a direct military engagement between the armed forces of the United States and Canada before January 20, 2029.

Resolution criteria:
Must involve official government forces (ex. uniformed military, national guard, or police acting in an official capacity, not private militias or individuals)
Must include exchange of fire or direct combat operations
Must result in the creation of a wikipedia page, with a table indicating at least 10 total casualties or losses and with the USA and Canada as belligerents on opposing sides, and that page must remain up for at least a week.
(ex. this page)