Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.4%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 21, 26, 6:19 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Tensions have been increasing between Ethiopia and Eritrea as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has led a PR push about the country's need for consistent access to a seaport.
- Ethiopia is the world's largest landlocked country.
- Ethiopia and Eritrea engaged in a bloody border war from 1999-2001, but Abiy signed a peace deal in 2018 to restore ties, for which he won the Nobel Peace Prize.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea occurs by December 31, 2026.
- Armed conflict is defined as sustained military hostilities involving direct combat operations between the two nations' armed forces, resulting in casualties.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026? resolve?
- Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2026.
- How is Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Tensions have been increasing between Ethiopia and Eritrea as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has led a PR push about the country's need for consistent access to a seaport.