Will there be ceasefires in the Ukraine/Russia and Israel/Hamas wars during the Trump presidency?
PoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastRussia / UkraineUS PoliticsGeopolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 61.9%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleNov 10, 24, 4:58 AM UTCJan 16, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketWill the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war
Manifold MarketsWill Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
FutuurRules
Trump claims to be the great deal maker, and a peacetime president.
- Will there be a ceasefire that lasts at least 24hours in each of the Ukraine/Russia and Israel/Hamas wars?
- The ceasefires don’t need to be at the same time, but both must be while Trump is president.
- Armistices, treaties, or other formal war endings will also qualify.
- Resolves NO at the end of the second Trump presidency.
