Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 70.7%
Forecasters
71
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Feb 14, 24, 10:47 AM UTCFeb 21, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Above-ground nuclear explosion by EOY 2026?
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PolymarketRules
Here is the history of Nuclear Explosions :)
- September 2017: The most recent confirmed nuclear test occurred in North Korea.
- 2006, 2009, 2013, 2016, and 2017: North Korea conducted nuclear tests.
- 1998: India and Pakistan, non-signatories, last tested nuclear weapons.
- July 11, 1958: A nuclear weapon test occurred at Bikini Atoll with a yield of 9.3 megatons.
- September 19, 1962: A nuclear weapon test occurred at Novaya Zemlya.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 71% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030 resolve?
- Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030 is scheduled to resolve on February 21, 2030.
- How is Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Here is the history of Nuclear Explosions :)