Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.3%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 14, 25, 7:21 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an above-ground nuclear test take place in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030
Manifold MarketsHighest-altitude nuclear explosion record broken before 2035?
Manifold MarketsIn which country's territory will the next nuclear explosion of any type occur?
Manifold MarketsWill ground beef hit __ in 2026?
LimitlessUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRules
Majority of energy release from fission or fusion, not chemical.
- Nuclear detonation, not a reactor.
- In space counts.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta-dPUQqQCtQL)