Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66.6%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJul 23, 25, 9:33 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
The highest altitude nuclear explosion prior to market creation appears to be the third Argus test at 794 kilometers, but information is scarce.
- If that number is wrong, this market resolves based on the correct number.
- The explosion must be human-caused.
- A natural or alien one does not count.
- This resolves based on altitude above Earth, so an explosion on the moon or Mars would count.
- (Unless they get a lot closer, in which case I may not be able to resolve this market promptly.)
