Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
One-OffGeopoliticsCrime & JusticePolitics3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 75.4%
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12
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 30, 23, 11:11 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
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So far there have been 2 assassinations (Idriss Déby of Chad, Jovenel Moïse of Haiti).
- Resolves according to this list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinated_and_executed_heads_of_state_and_government
- Executions count too, if it ends up on this article it counts.
- Only incumbent heads of state, so Shinzo Abe's assassination doesn't count.
- If the wikipedia list is deleted or has the criteria for inclusion significantly changed, resolves according to the same guidelines it has at market creation (deaths of incumbent heads of government/state from execution/assassination) as faithfully as possible according to my judgement.
- I will not bet.